Air pollution is one of the leading contributors to global mortality and disease. In the US, ambient fine particulate matter is the sixth highest mortality risk factor and the environmental risk factor with the largest attributable burden of disease by a wide margin. Wildland fires, including wildfires and prescribed fires, are the largest source of particulate matter emissions in the US. As emissions from other major sources continue to drop, fuels loads return to natural levels after decades of fire suppression, the popularity of prescribed burning grows, and wildfire intensity and frequency increase under a warmer climate, understanding the impacts of wildland fire on air quality and health will remain a critical environmental research priority. Wildland fires are a natural feature of many landscapes, where ecosystem health may depend on its occurrence. As populations and policies adapt to coexistence with fire, new air quality management strategies are needed to mitigate the impacts of smoke. Managing air pollution from wildland fires entails controlling fire activity through land management treatments, including prescribed fire, mechanical thinning, and resource objective wildfires, in a way that accounts for the externalities associated with emitted smoke. It also requires valuing the ecological benefits of fire and land management, principally hazardous wildfire risk reduction, but also ecosystem restoration, wildlife habitat enhancement, aesthetic improvement, and others. Effective air quality management also necessitates changing public perception of wildland fire and educating air quality engineers and land managers about the roles of fire and smoke in these coupled human and natural systems. The aim of my CAREER proposal is to develop a modeling and educational framework that will allow air quality management to merge public health objectives with the ecological objectives of land management. To achieve this aim I will pursue the following goals: (1) Enable wildland fire management based on potential health impacts; (2) Integrate air pollution externalities into prescribed fire management; (3) Develop integrated scenarios of fire risk, land management, and smoke impacts; (4) Change public perception of fire and smoke. These goals of this proposal will impact environmental engineering education, advance scientific understanding, and benefit society. Mitigating the impacts of wildland smoke while encouraging a sustainable fire regime is a unique environmental challenge that must be approached with new modeling methodologies. The framework developed during my early career aims to guide future wildland and air quality management by building understanding of these coupled human-natural systems and providing tools that align ecological and public health goals. We will produce new modeling algorithms, dispersion modeling ensembles of unprecedented scales, and integrated scenarios that link wildland and air quality management for the first time. This research will lay a foundation for the development of true integrated assessment models for wildland management. As the research objectives are pursed, a promising team of graduate students will be trained as independent researchers and gain specialization in modeling the interactions between coupled human and natural systems. Undergraduate and high school students will be exposed to environmental engineering research. Research findings will be shared through conference presentations, journal publications, and multiple venues in the North Carolina Triangle region. Beyond traditional science dissemination, I will lead an effort to effectively communicate our research to a broader audience, including the fire and land management community and the general public. To this end, science communication will be reinforced in undergraduate and graduate engineering preparation. An educational partnership between NC State University and the North Carolina Division of Parks and Recreation will be established. Importantly, our work will spark a necessary change in public perception

This project will develop new methods to mitigate adverse human health impacts from power sector emissions through the targeted use of grid-connected energy storage. Energy storage devices, such as batteries or pumped storage hydropower, can shift both the time and location of power sector emissions based on their charging and discharging strategies. The overall human health impacts of criteria pollutants such as SO2 and NOx are closely related to the both temporal and spatial distribution of emissions. The overarching research question that will be answered is: Can operational strategies for grid-connected energy storage yield cost-effective reductions in the human health impacts associated with power sector emissions? To answer this question, the research team will develop a unit commitment and economic dispatch model with energy storage to determine optimal power system operations and provide unit-level SO2 and NOx emissions. A reduced-form air pollution transport model will provide spatially- and temporally-resolved PM2.5 and O3 concentrations stemming from power plant and energy storage dispatch decisions. Human health damage cost estimates will determine the health response from changes in exposure to these secondary pollutants, coupling those results with the value of a statistical life and determine the unit-level marginal health damage costs associated with the primary emissions. Those costs then serve as inputs into the power system model to allow real-time decision making, effectively internalizing the externality costs of the emissions and yielding the optimal charge/discharge behavior of the energy storage to cost-effectively reduce human health impacts.

Smoke from wildland fire (wildfire and prescribed fire) is one of the largest sources of fine particulate air pollution (PM2.5) in the United States. PM2.5 is associated with respiratory and cardiovascular morbidities and premature mortality. In the Southeastern region of the country, prescribed fire is used extensively as a method to reduce wildfire risk and provide beneficial ecosystem services. However, this practice generates non-negligible amounts of smoke which must be managed acceptably to prevent impacts on human health and visibility. populations experiencing wildland fire and smoke in the Southeast are not well identified, using readily accessible indices, especially when considering the distinction between wildfire and prescribed fire. Further, climate change will likely affect the timing and application frequency of prescribed fire in the future which may alter impacts and risks for nearby communities. In this work, we characterize the populations impacted by PM2.5 from wildland fires in the Southeast. Using National Weather Service smoke forecasts and MODIS and/or VIIRS satellite fire detections from the years 2012 ������������������ 2017, U.S. Census demographic data, and U.S. EPA EJSCREEN environmental justice indices, we characterize the populations most frequently experiencing wildland fire smoke during this time period. To understand how wildfire and prescribed fire impacts populations differently, we model PM2.5 concentrations resulting from wild- and prescribed fires in North Carolina using the chemical transport model CMAQ and emissions provided by the U.S. EPA National Emissions Inventory for the years 2014 and 2017. Finally, we consider how recent prescribed burning activity and the identified impacted populations align with possible future changes in prescribed burning windows due to climate change. Recent analyses of meteorological conditions favorable for prescribed burning in the southeast under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are used to identify possible areas of future land management change and populations that may subsequently be impacted. Based on the characterization of the populations, specific considerations will be recommended. This work will help to identify whether there are particularly vulnerable groups that are disproportionately impacted by wildland fire smoke in the Southeast. Further, this work is novel in that it will delineate wildfire impacts from prescribed fire impacts which will help to identify whether there is a difference in populations that are aided or ailed by wildland fire and smoke. Finally, by juxtaposing future possible changes in favorable prescribed burning conditions with recent burning activity and impacted populations, this work will help land managers to identify vulnerable future populations and appropriate land management practices.

China has started a new round of power market reform, introducing a dispatch approach that minimize the electricity generation costs to its current power sector. Although several studies have investigated the carbon emission impacts of adopting this economic dispatch in China, none have estimated the human health impacts brought by this transition. Comprehensively understanding the impacts of the power market reform will provide insights on how to make better regulations to protect the public health. This project will estimate the health impacts by integrating power system models and air quality models, and also explore how to cost-effectively reduce these health impacts by internalizing real-time health costs in plant dispatch decisions and re-optimizing the unit commitment and economic dispatch in light of these impacts.

Wildland fires, both wildfires and prescribed fires, play important roles in the ecosystems of southeastern US. Wildfires and related smoke can cause severe damage to property and human health. Prescribed fires intend to lessen the occurrence, size, and severity of uncontrolled wildfires and are the a commonly practiced land management strategy in the southeastern US. However, prescribed fire smoke is also an important source of air pollutants. The trade-offs between the operational and environmental costs of prescribed burning and avoided cost of wildfire has not been comprehensively explored. In this project, we will compare costs of wildfire and prescribed fire by monetizing operational prescribed burning, wildfire suppression, wildfire property loss, and air quality health impacts. As a case study, we will explore the North Carolina State Parks prescribed burning program and costs of wildfire on State Parks land in 2016. This comparison of costs between a prescribed burning program and wildfire impacts will be aid managers in developing improved cost-effectiveness analyses of the land management programs.

This project proposal is in response to Joint Fire Science Project FON 16-1-08: Prescribed fire smoke emissions for the Southern Fire Exchange. To address the lack of a common record of prescribed fire occurrence and characteristics for the Southern U.S., we propose developing an integrated database for the Southeastern States������������������ prescribed burns. The system will be based on electronic burn permit records and consolidate information from alternative burn tracking systems and, when necessary, satellite products. Data will be gathered for recent years (2010-2016) in this research but the system will be designed to dynamically update the data going forward. This database will be at the heart of a unified platform that merges prescribed fire, air quality, and smoke exposure data into a single framework. The platform will offer real-time data and tools to fire and air quality managers through a web-based application, and will be available to support the development of new state-level digital management systems. Information compiled will be used to provide a consortium-level analysis of the impact of fires on air pollution, based on fire emissions and dispersion models, as well as state-of-the-science comprehensive atmospheric chemistry and transport modeling systems. Ultimately, we will assess the public health burden associated with prescribed burning in the Southern U.S. and effectiveness of smoke management programs. Involved in the proposal are Dr. Fernando Garcia Menendez of North Carolina State University, Dr. Talat Odman of the Georgia Institute of Technology, and Dr. Cassandra Johnson Gaither of the U.S. Forest Service Southern Research Station.

Air pollution associated with smoke emissions from wildfires has been linked to increased mortality and morbidity. In the U.S. wildland fires have become an important source of air pollution across several regions, including the Southeast. Wildfires can elevate pollutant concentrations at affected communities well beyond safe levels. However, the episodic and unpredictable nature of wildfires makes estimates of health outcomes associated with individual fires or fire complexes difficult to attain with air quality and health effects models. The historic 2016 Southeastern U.S. wildfires offer an exceptional opportunity to quantify the impacts of wildfire smoke. This pilot study aims to produce an estimate of health effects in North Carolina associated with exposure to fine particulate matter pollution (PM2.5) from specific fire events that led to a deterioration of air quality in the state during the fall of 2016. We will calculate fire emissions based on data from an interagency incident information system and constrained by remote sensing. Regional-scale air quality modeling will be used to generate fire-impacted spatiotemporal PM2.5 concentrations fields for North Carolina. The air quality data will be related to health impacts by using a model based on epidemiological concentration-response functions for different health endpoints. The study will determine if regulatory modeling tools predict a significant impact from wildfire events on different health outcomes, including hospital admissions, asthma attacks, acute respiratory symptoms, and work loss days. An estimate of discernable effects of wildfires will strongly support larger grant applications focused on smoke exposure mitigation and larger-scale health impacts.